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AT A GLANCE
If looks are deceiving, then they’re no more deceiving than the 14.7 per cent margin the Liberals hold in Port Stephens.
The margin is the biggest held by the Libs in Port Stephens, but a number of influences suggest that 2015 will be a much tighter race than past results suggest.
A boundary redistribution in 2012 will reduce the Liberal vote by about two per cent.
The Libs can also be expected lose a large chunk gained by the 2011 landslide against Labor. And then there’s the sitting Liberal MP Craig Baumann who has been booted out of the party over the undeclared campaign donations aired at last year’s ICAC inquiry. And then there’s the recent and very public spat over who will represent the Liberals in 2015.
That battle was won by Port Stephens councillor Ken Jordan over a feisty Jaimie Abbott.
Labor’s Kate Washington will again contest the seat.
On first preferences, she suffered a 13 per cent swing against the party in 2011 when the Liberals gained an 8.6 per cent swing, but if the boot’s on the Liberal foot this time around as expected, a favourite becomes much harder to pick.
Suburbs in electorate: Anna Bay, Balickera, Boat Harbour, Bobs Farm, Brandy Hill, Bundabah, Butterwick, Campvale, Carrington, Corlette, Duns Creek, Eagleton, East Seaham, Ferodale, Fingal Bay, Fishermans Bay, Glen Oak, Hawks Nest, Heatherbrae, Hinton, Karuah, Lemon Tree Passage, Mallabula, Medowie, Motto Farm, Mount Kanwary, Nelson Bay, Nelsons Plains, Nerong, North Arm Cove, One Mile, Osterley, Oyster Cove, Pindimar, RAAF Williamtown, Raymond Terrace, Salamander Bay, Salt Ash, Seaham, Shoal Bay, Soldiers Point, Swan Bay, Swan Reach, Tahlee, Tanilba Bay, Taylors Beach, Tea Gardens, The Branch, Tomago, Twelve Mile Creek, Wallalong, Williamtown, Woodville.
Currently held by: Craig Baumann, Liberal
Margin: 14.7% to Liberals
Boundary redistribution: increased Liberal margin by 2.3% on 2011 result.
Voters: 52,408
Two-party preferred result 2011: Craig Baumann (Liberal) 24,561 beat Kate Washington (Labor) 14,770
Total population: 69,067
Median age: 43
Total workforce: 29,469
Weekly household income: $932
People who travel to work by public transport: 583
People who travel to work by car as passenger or driver: 20,127
Couples without children: 8606
Couples with children: 6941
One parent families: 3344
Own house outright: 10,061
Own house with mortgage: 7625
Rent home: 7948
Median monthly mortgage repayment: $1700
Unemployment rate: TBC
CANDIDATES IN BALLOT ORDER
1. Joe Shirley, No Land Tax
2. Peter Arena, Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)
3. Kate Washington, Country Labor
4. Ken Jordan, Liberal
5. Rochelle Flood, The Greens
* Information collected from 2011 Census, Newcastle Herald archive and Elections NSW.
